The UK has not yet had a named storm this autumn due to high-pressure systems steering Atlantic lows away, but forecasts suggest a shift to wetter, windier weather from late autumn as El Niño strengthens.
01Summary
- 01The jet stream has been positioned north or north-west of the UK, diverting storm systems and leading to warmer, drier conditions for many areas.
- 02Parts of Herefordshire have received only a tenth of their normal rainfall by mid-October, and severe drought has been declared in parts of southern England.
- 03The Met Office's three-month outlook for October to December predicts double the normal chance of wetter weather and 1.3 times the normal chance of windier conditions, consistent with El Niño patterns.
- 04Named storms are issued by the UK's Met Office, Ireland's Met Éireann, and the Netherlands' KNMI for potentially damaging winds, flooding rain, or disruptive snow.
- 05Since storm naming began in 2015, the first storm has arrived after 1 November in about half of the years.
02Why it matters
This matters because the coming shift to wetter and windier weather could bring the first named storm of the season, with potential for widespread disruption to travel, power, and property across the UK.
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